استخدام أحد نماذج بوكس-جينكنز للتنبؤ بأعداد الطالبات في المرحلة الأساسية في محافظة أبين

Abstract EN

The study aimed to apply the statistical method of modern time series by using a modeling methodology Box - Jenkins, where the model was used moving averages ARIMA(١،١،١), a form appropriate for estimating the time series data, and through this study was to predict the numbers of students in basic education in the province of Abyan to ٢٠٢٧.

But the results of the study of great importance in the development of plans and programs of the Department of Education in the province of Abyan in order to develop educational institutions, and promote education for girls in general and rural girls especially concentrated where the vast majority of females.

The study recommends using this statistical method to predict the numbers of students in the coming years because of their importance.