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Exposition and comparison of two kinds of a posteriori analysis of fault trees
Other Title(s)
استعراض و مقارنة نوعين من التحليل اللاحق لأشجار الأخطاء
Joint Authors
al-Qawasimi, Muhammad Ahmad
Rushdi, Ali Muhammad Ali
Source
Journal of King Abdulaziz University : Computing and Information Technology Sciences
Issue
Vol. 5, Issue 1 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.55-73, 19 p.
Publisher
King Abdul Aziz University Faculty of Computing and Information Technology
Publication Date
2016-12-31
Country of Publication
Saudi Arabia
No. of Pages
19
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Fault trees are top-down formal deductive analytic tools with diverse applications in many fields such as reliability, safety and security.
Forward fault tree analysis (FTA) can be termed a priori analysis since it predicts the top-event probability in terms of basic-event probabilities.
This paper offers a tutorial exposition and a detailed comparison of two kinds of backward or a posteriori FTA that are implemented in the probability domain and in the Boolean domain, respectively.
For the probability-domain a posteriori FTA, it is assumed that the top event probability is known.
For example, when the top event is presumed to have occurred, then it has a probability of one.
The analysis proceeds recursively in the probability domain to assess the probabilities of lower events under certain realistic assumptions such as mutual exclusiveness or statistical independence of the input events for a specific gate, and with the utilization of educated guesses on certain ratios of probabilities of such events.
This paper offers a detailed mathematical procedure for implementing this a posteriori FTA that makes the most of the concept of duality.
The procedure is demonstrated via a detailed illustrative example.
The paper also considers the a posteriori FTA in the Boolean domain.
Such an analysis is available in the literature in terms of the very powerful tool of Bayesian Networks (BNs).
We demonstrate here that in many cases this analysis is still possible via elementary faulttree manipulations that use the concept of a Boolean quotient to effectively implement Bayes’ Theorem in the Boolean domain.
Again, a demonstrative example is given to illustrate the Boolean a posteriori FTA, explain its details, and show that the power of BNs is not really warranted in simple cases.
A detailed comparison between the two kinds of a posteriori FTA is also given to identify their similarities and differences.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Rushdi, Ali Muhammad Ali& al-Qawasimi, Muhammad Ahmad. 2016. Exposition and comparison of two kinds of a posteriori analysis of fault trees. Journal of King Abdulaziz University : Computing and Information Technology Sciences،Vol. 5, no. 1, pp.55-73.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-767402
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Rushdi, Ali Muhammad Ali& al-Qawasimi, Muhammad Ahmad. Exposition and comparison of two kinds of a posteriori analysis of fault trees. Journal of King Abdulaziz University : Computing and Information Technology Sciences Vol. 5, no. 1 (2016), pp.55-73.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-767402
American Medical Association (AMA)
Rushdi, Ali Muhammad Ali& al-Qawasimi, Muhammad Ahmad. Exposition and comparison of two kinds of a posteriori analysis of fault trees. Journal of King Abdulaziz University : Computing and Information Technology Sciences. 2016. Vol. 5, no. 1, pp.55-73.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-767402
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 71-73
Record ID
BIM-767402