A pandemic risk assessment of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia
Joint Authors
Hanif, Atif
Ifan, Salih A.
Nur, Islam
Zamzam, Abd al-Rahman M. M.
al-Juhani, Samirah Muhammad
Source
Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences
Issue
Vol. 24, Issue 7 (30 Nov. 2017), pp.1631-1638, 8 p.
Publisher
Publication Date
2017-11-30
Country of Publication
Saudi Arabia
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Topics
Abstract EN
Since the initial emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, a high incidence rate has been observed in Saudi Arabia.
This suggests that the country is at continuous risk.
The epidemic level of MERS-CoV infection was examined in Saudi Arabia by the Susceptible-Infectious-Rec overed (SIR) model using a Bayesian approach for estimation of time dependent reproduction number (R) across a two-year interval (May, 2013-May, 2015) in five defined clusters, followed by sensitivity analysis of the most significant clusters.
Significant MERS-CoV peaks were detected in the period between March and May of each year.
Moreover, MERS-CoV infection was highlighted in western (40.8%) and central (31.9%) regions, followed by eastern region (20%).
The temporal-based Bayesian approach indicated a sub-critical epidemic in all regions in the baseline scenario (R: 0.85–0.97).
However, R potential limit was exceeded in the sensitivity analysis scenario in only central and western regions (R: 1.08–1.12) that denoted epidemic level in those regions.
The impact of sporadic cases was found relatively insignificant and pinpointed to the lack of zoonotic influence on MERS-CoV transmission dynamics.
The results of current study would be helpful for evaluation of future progression of MERS-CoV infections, better understanding and control interventions.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Ifan, Salih A.& Nur, Islam& Hanif, Atif& Zamzam, Abd al-Rahman M. M.& al-Juhani, Samirah Muhammad. 2017. A pandemic risk assessment of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences،Vol. 24, no. 7, pp.1631-1638.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-781584
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Ifan, Salih A.…[et al.]. A pandemic risk assessment of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences Vol. 24, no. 7 (Nov. 2017), pp.1631-1638.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-781584
American Medical Association (AMA)
Ifan, Salih A.& Nur, Islam& Hanif, Atif& Zamzam, Abd al-Rahman M. M.& al-Juhani, Samirah Muhammad. A pandemic risk assessment of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences. 2017. Vol. 24, no. 7, pp.1631-1638.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-781584
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 1637-1638
Record ID
BIM-781584