Estimating drilling cost and duration using copulas dependencies models
Other Title(s)
تقدير تكلفة و مدة الحفر باستخدام نماذج تبعيات الروابط
Joint Authors
al-Kindi, M.
al-Lawati, M.
al-Azri, N.
Source
The Journal of Engineering Research
Issue
Vol. 14, Issue 1 (30 Jun. 2017), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Sultan Qaboos University College of Engineering
Publication Date
2017-06-30
Country of Publication
Oman
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Engineering & Technology Sciences (Multidisciplinary)
Abstract EN
Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry.
This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling.
Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them.
This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type.
In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index).
The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement.
In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations.
Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important.
The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios.
These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure.
Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.
American Psychological Association (APA)
al-Kindi, M.& al-Lawati, M.& al-Azri, N.. 2017. Estimating drilling cost and duration using copulas dependencies models. The Journal of Engineering Research،Vol. 14, no. 1, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-789830
Modern Language Association (MLA)
al-Kindi, M.…[et al.]. Estimating drilling cost and duration using copulas dependencies models. The Journal of Engineering Research Vol. 14, no. 1 (2017), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-789830
American Medical Association (AMA)
al-Kindi, M.& al-Lawati, M.& al-Azri, N.. Estimating drilling cost and duration using copulas dependencies models. The Journal of Engineering Research. 2017. Vol. 14, no. 1, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-789830
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 8-9
Record ID
BIM-789830