محددات التضخم في السودان خلال الفترة "1977-2015" : دراسة تطبيقية

Abstract EN

This paper aims at investigating the determinants of inflation in Sudan, using annual data during the period 1977-2015.

Five independent variables have been chosen as some probable factors effecting the behavior of the local inflation as dependent variable.

These factors are: money supply, gross domestic product, public budget deficit, imported inflation and exchange rate.

To avoid the problem of spurious regression, the series has been subjected to stationary tests, namely, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests.

The results of the tests indicate that all the series has a first order integration.

Johansen Cointegration test indicates that there are long equilibrium relationship between local inflation and its determinants.

The result of the study indicates the significance of the determinants on the local inflation.

The paper recommends reforming policies concerning the real and monetary sector and controlling public expenditure