Predicting financial crises : myth and reality
Other Title(s)
Prévoir les crises financières : mythe et réalité
التنبؤ بالأزمات المالية ببن الوهم و الحقيقة
Author
Source
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 51 في الاقتصاد و الإدارة و القانون (30 Sep. 2017), pp.331-351, 21 p.
Publisher
Annaba Badji Mokhtar University
Publication Date
2017-09-30
Country of Publication
Algeria
No. of Pages
21
Main Subjects
Financial and Accounting Sciences
Abstract EN
Forecasting financial crises has always been one of the most controversial topics in modern finance, especially in recent years.
The aim of this article is not to build a new model able to anticipate or provide some early warning signals for those crises, but to overview the existing body of literature in an attempt to show the predictive power of EWSs used.
After a comparison betweenfinancial crises and financial stability, we proceed to detailed analysis of different financial crises, their indicators, triggers, and implications.
We concludewith an assessment of the effectiveness of the EWSs utilized by different bodies and institutions in predicting financial turbulences.
The final result is that financial crises are unpredictable and always take market participants and policymakers by surprise.
These people ask continually themselves “why didn’t they think of thisearlier?” These are the limits of financial engineering(securitization) in a world under financial globalization.
Abstract FRE
En finance moderne, prévoir les crises financières reste toujours un thème très controversé, notamment durant ces dernières années.
L’objectif de ce travail n’est pas l’élaboration d’un nouveau modèle capable d’anticiper ces crises, mais de revoir la littérature existante en vue de montrer les capacités explicatives des systèmes utilisés d’alerte précoce des crises financières (EWSs).
Les crises financières diffèrent par leurs indicateurs, causes et répercussions.
Les résultats montrent que ces crises sont caractérisées par leur soudaineté et rapidité, et par conséquent, elles sont imprédictibles, ce qui prouve que l’ingénierie financière, et plus particulièrement la titrisation, a des limites.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Djabbar, Mahfuz. 2017. Predicting financial crises : myth and reality. Revue el-Tawassol،Vol. 2017, no. 51 في الاقتصاد و الإدارة و القانون, pp.331-351.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-807078
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Djabbar, Mahfuz. Predicting financial crises : myth and reality. Revue el-Tawassol No. 51 في الاقتصاد و الإدارة و القانون (Sep. 2017), pp.331-351.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-807078
American Medical Association (AMA)
Djabbar, Mahfuz. Predicting financial crises : myth and reality. Revue el-Tawassol. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 51 في الاقتصاد و الإدارة و القانون, pp.331-351.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-807078
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 347-351
Record ID
BIM-807078