التنبؤ بالطلب على البنزين العادي في مؤسسة نفطال-حاسي مسعود

Abstract EN

This study aims at forecasting the demand for regular gasoline at the National Corporation for Marketing and Distribution of Petroleum Products (Naftal HMD -Ouargla) based on the Box-Jenkins methodology.

The time series data for regular gasoline sales were used in the period 2016/2006 by applying some statistical tests (ADF , PP) to determine the stability of the time series.

We also used the statistical programs Eviews 9.0 and GRETEL 2.0 to estimate their monthly sales of ordinary gasoline by forecasting future sales for the first 10 months of 2017.

The results showed that the normal model for regular gasoline sales is the SARIMA(2,1,1)12 (1,1,1) model and that the prediction follows the path of the original series, confirming the accuracy and statistical quality of the selected model as well as the predictive power.