Detection of the seasonal variations of potato sales in wholesale markets of Baghdad Province during the period (2010-2015) and forecasting by using seasonal time series models (Sarima)
Other Title(s)
الكشف عن التغيرات الموسمية لمبيعات محصول البطاطا في أسواق الجملة لمحافظة بغداد خلال المدة (2010-2015) و التنبؤ بها باستخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية الموسمية (Sarima)
Joint Authors
al-Ani, Rand Qusayy Sami
al-Hiyali, Ali Darb Kassar
Source
The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Science
Issue
Vol. 49, Issue 1 (28 Feb. 2018), pp.50-57, 8 p.
Publisher
University of Baghdad College of Agriculture
Publication Date
2018-02-28
Country of Publication
Iraq
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Topics
Abstract EN
This research was aimed to detect the seasonal phenomenon of the monthly sales of potato crop in Baghdad for the period (January 2010 - December 2015), using the krusskle - Wallis method.
The research also aimed to determine the shape of the time series of the monthly sales of the potato crop whether to follow additive or multiplicative model.
The problem of the research is presence of the seasonal phenomenon in the monthly sales of the potato crop, which will be reflected in one way or another on the short-term planning process.
According to the results obtained, the monthly sales of the potato crop were predicted at 60 observations for the period January 2016 - December 2020, where the results were consistent with those in the original time series.
We conclude from the results obtained that the monthly sale of the potato crop contains seasonal variations and confirms the nature of the pattern that the potato crop has been affected by the season to a large extent.
This research was concluded that there was an increase in sales of potato crop during specific months of the year.
This is confirmed by the results of the research, which will be reflected in one way or another on the low prices in the months of high sales according to the law of supply and demand.
The research included recommendations such as preventing import at peak time (peak season of production) and the need to work on the development of laws and legislation to protect local agricultural products.
The research also recommended the imposition of taxes and customs duties on imported agricultural products and not to allow entry into Iraq during the peak season of production
American Psychological Association (APA)
al-Ani, Rand Qusayy Sami& al-Hiyali, Ali Darb Kassar. 2018. Detection of the seasonal variations of potato sales in wholesale markets of Baghdad Province during the period (2010-2015) and forecasting by using seasonal time series models (Sarima). The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Science،Vol. 49, no. 1, pp.50-57.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-838524
Modern Language Association (MLA)
al-Ani, Rand Qusayy Sami& al-Hiyali, Ali Darb Kassar. Detection of the seasonal variations of potato sales in wholesale markets of Baghdad Province during the period (2010-2015) and forecasting by using seasonal time series models (Sarima). The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Science Vol. 49, no. 1 (2018), pp.50-57.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-838524
American Medical Association (AMA)
al-Ani, Rand Qusayy Sami& al-Hiyali, Ali Darb Kassar. Detection of the seasonal variations of potato sales in wholesale markets of Baghdad Province during the period (2010-2015) and forecasting by using seasonal time series models (Sarima). The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Science. 2018. Vol. 49, no. 1, pp.50-57.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-838524
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 56-57
Record ID
BIM-838524