Determinants of fertility and population policies in Mena countries

Abstract EN

In this study, we examine the relationship between fertility and population policies and other potential determinants.

We use panel data from the United Nations World Population Policies database, Integrated Labor Market Panel Survey (ILMPS) database and the World Development Indicators.

In the first part of our analysis, we find significant negative association between the government policy to reduce fertility, and the change in the total fertility rate.

On the other hand, there is no significant and robust relationship between the government policy to raise fertility, government’s policy to support family planning, and the change in the total fertility rate.

In addition we find evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the total fertility rate, and spatial spillovers from government’s policy on fertility.

In the second part of our analysis, we examine the determinants of fertility using micro data on Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia.

We find positive and significant association between fertility and age, household size, marital status and a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if the first child is female and 0 otherwise.

At the same time, we find negative and significant association between fertility and urban areas, education level, labor force participation and wealth