تحليل الفجوتين التضخمية و الانكماشية في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (1990-2016)‎

Abstract EN

The crises experienced by Iraq, both economic and political, have played a major role in creating a general instability in the Iraqi economy.

This led to the imbalance of the two sides of the aggregate supply, represented by GDP, and the aggregate demand, represented by consumption, Government spending, net exports.

In this work, we attempted to analyze the general instability that produced inflationary gaps, during the first half of the research (1990s), and deflationary gaps during the second half of the research period (2000s).

We have used the standard method to predict the overall stability of the Iraqi economy for the next 10 years by applying the (impulse response function) model by proving that the financial, monetary and structural factors lead to inflationary and deflationary gaps and imbalance in the Iraqi economy.

At the end, we reached a number of conclusions, the most important of them Are : The Iraqi economy has passed through two periods, pre-2003 period (economic sanctions period), the Iraqi economy suffered during this period from the deflationary gap due to weakness in the structure of the Iraqi economy itself.

Inflationary and deflationary gaps have been measured in two different ways: the method of the (monetary stability factor) or the (inflationary pressure), calculated by the difference between the amount of the change in the demand supply minus the amount of the change in the gross domestic product over GDP.

Noticed a weak role for the tools of financial and monetary policies in addressing the gaps, in some extended research, these policies have worked to increase the severity of these gaps, due to the lack of organization and coordination between the two policies to counter inflationary pressures or deflationary faced the Iraqi economy during the period of research.