تحليل و قياس أثر تقلبات أسعار النفط على النفقات العامة الجارية و الاستثمارية في العراق للمدة 1980-2017

Abstract EN

The Iraqi economy is one of the rent-dependent economies that rely on oil revenues, which makes fiscal policy, especially fiscal policy, very sensitive to changes in the level of the international oil market, which affects the economic policy of the state because oil revenues are the main source of financing development projects.

The objective of this study is to analyze the price of crude oil and to explain the reasons for the fluctuations in this price as well as the impact on the relative importance of current and investment expenditures in Iraq for the period (2017-1980).

In addition, the standard method was used to know the impact of oil shocks in the public expenditure structure Through the use of root unit tests and joint integration and analysis of the shocks and the difference between the price of oil and current expenditures and investment in Iraq during the period under study.

The study found that fluctuations in the price of crude oil accounted for 50 percent of the changes in investment expenditures in Iraq, while these fluctuations explain less than a third of changes in current expenditures.

This is a sign of the sensitivity of investment expenditures to oil shocks, in contrast to current expenditures.

And that there is a short-term response between the change in the price of oil and investment expenditures and current, for the fourth slowdown at a significant level less than (0.1).

In addition, the fluctuations or shocks of the price of crude oil have a significant impact on investment expenditures compared to current expenditures in Iraq, meaning that any sudden rise or sudden decrease in the price of oil is reflected first on investment expenditures in a clear manner, and this will create negative effects reflected on the sectors Economic sectors associated with investment expenditures such as agriculture, industry and tourism.