تأثير تغيرات أسعار النفط في الأداء الاقتصادي في المملكة العربية السعودية : دراسة تطبيقية

Abstract EN

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of oil price changes on the most important macroeconomic variables in Saudi Arabia as a country that relies mainly on oil in its economy and budget.

The data of the study span over the period 1980-2015, where data were obtained from the General Statistics Authority and the World Bank.

Using econometric analytical methods, in particular the VAR model and the associated tests (Toda-Yamamoto and response functions) and the ARDL methods, the results showed that fluctuations in oil prices which have positive significant effects on real capital formation, general price level (GDP deflator) and real GDP growth rate and to some extent on money supply more over the prices of oil, have positive relationship with the general level of prices, capital formation and the index of economic openness.

The study recommends that the KSA needs to move forward with a view of diversifying the structure of GDP and the income sources.