Dynamic impacts of climate change on cereal yield in Egypt : an ARDL model

Abstract EN

This study tries to examine the relationship between global climate change and cereal production in Egypt.

An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to estimate the long and short-run impacts of carbon dioxide emissions, rainfall, temperature and rural population on cereal yield in Egypt.

Annual data for the variables included in the model, covering the period from 1961 till 2013, are used in the estimation process.

Results indicate that cereal production in Egypt is adversely affected in the short run by rainfall and temperature.

However, in the long-run, the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will be beneficial to some cereal crops.

Furthermore, attaining sustainable environment is an aspect worth considering in developing countries like Egypt.

Such a goal requires the Egyptian Government to increase the awareness of its importance among people and encourage the integration of proenvironmental measures into agricultural policies, practices, and planning