Analysis and measurement of the relationship between money supply and fisical policy rules in Iraq for the period 2004 : 3-2015 : 2

Abstract EN

The study is aimedat measuring and analyzing the relationship between money supply and the rules of fiscal policy in the Iraqi economy, covering data for the period (2004: 3-2015: 2).

The research revealed that when the Stationary test was performed for the time series of the current variables, it was concluded that theVariable Difict of Rule( Def) was at the level.

The rest of the variables were Stationary at the first difference (I).

Therefore, the ARDL model was applied, Long-term Bounds Test, and a short-term equilibrium relationship.

And the existence of positive and significant effect by the rules of deficit and public debt and the golden rule in the long term, where the value of partial flexibility (0.034) and (0.277) and 0.103, respectively, and this corresponds to the logic of economic theory, Are not consistent with the logic of economic theory.

The negative and significant impact of the long-term (Rev / Exp) rule in the short term.

In the short run, the increase in the ratio of revenues to expenditure leads to a long-term reduction in money supply.

Structural imbalance in public expenditure items in favor of investment Expenditure driving the development of GDP and diversification of production base