Schedule risk analysis using monte Carlo simulation for residential projects

Abstract EN

Scheduling is an essential part of construction project management.

Planning and scheduling of construction tasks help engineers to complete the project on time and within the budget.

Most of the construction project failed to finish within planned duration; one of the reasons is regarded to estimated project duration without considering uncertainties that may cause a delay in performing specific activities.

Hence it is vital to develop a risk management process which deals with the risks of execution that affects the project duration.

This study focused on Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Residential Projects, by taking the construction of a residential house as a case study.

The primary objective of this study analyzes the output of a project schedule risk simulation when Monte Carlo use to simulate the duration of individual activities of the project and compare the total project duration outputs graphically and through statistical analysis.

Consequently, using the Critical Path Method (CPM) to determine the project duration, which is equal to 96 days.

For deciding the activity duration, the researcher has made a form.

The form consists of all house tasks and estimated quantity with three columns for estimating Optimistic Duration, Most Likely Duration, and Pessimistic Duration in accordance with the respondent's perception for establishing the project duration by using the Program Evaluation and Review Techniques (PERT) method, which is equal 103 days.

Project duration with low risk equal to 103 days, with base risks equal to 107 days and with high-risk project duration equal to 111 days.

The outcomes clearly show that it is extremely unlikely to complete the project within 98 days and there is 100% chance that the project will be completed in 115 days.

The sensitivity analysis for residential construction house indicates that the project schedule is most sensitive to the activity of “Wall Ceramic Tiles”, which can influence the completion date because of the correlation coefficient of this activity reached to 0.39 and top-ranked of all other activities.