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Modeling and forecasting periodic time series data with Fourier autoregressive model
Joint Authors
Taiwo, Abbas I.
Olatayo, Timothy Olabisi
Adedotun, Adedayo Funmi
Adesanya, Kazim Kehinde
Source
Issue
Vol. 60, Issue 6 (30 Jun. 2019), pp.1367-1373, 7 p.
Publisher
University of Baghdad College of Science
Publication Date
2019-06-30
Country of Publication
Iraq
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it.
In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented.
From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF).
The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method.
FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC).
The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise.
The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE).
The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast.
The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Taiwo, Abbas I.& Olatayo, Timothy Olabisi& Adedotun, Adedayo Funmi& Adesanya, Kazim Kehinde. 2019. Modeling and forecasting periodic time series data with Fourier autoregressive model. Iraqi Journal of Science،Vol. 60, no. 6, pp.1367-1373.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-969407
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Taiwo, Abbas I.…[et al.]. Modeling and forecasting periodic time series data with Fourier autoregressive model. Iraqi Journal of Science Vol. 60, no. 6 (2019), pp.1367-1373.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-969407
American Medical Association (AMA)
Taiwo, Abbas I.& Olatayo, Timothy Olabisi& Adedotun, Adedayo Funmi& Adesanya, Kazim Kehinde. Modeling and forecasting periodic time series data with Fourier autoregressive model. Iraqi Journal of Science. 2019. Vol. 60, no. 6, pp.1367-1373.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-969407
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 1372-1373
Record ID
BIM-969407