The dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in Basrah : second report

Abstract EN

Background: COVID-19 pandemic still expanding across the world and continuing at modest scale in Basrah.

Objective: To further elaborate on COVID-19 epidemic in Basrah province and document the changing dynamic of the disease in terms of demographic characteristics, incidence, case fatality, geographical distribution and time trend.

Methods: This study covered COVID-19 cases reported in Basrah from March 9 to May 20, 2020.

Two sources were used for obtaining data in this study.

The first is an excel sheet containing information on 736 cases covering age, gender, residence, travel history, comorbidity and fate, which is obtained from The Department of Public Health in Basrah.

The second is the daily numbers of new cases (also 736) obtained from the daily communiqué of the Ministry of Health.

Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS-version 20) and Excel programmes were used for statistical analysis.

Results: The mean age ± SD was 35.

5 ± 18.

9years (for males = 35.

6 ± 19.

0 and for females = 35.

5 ± 18.

8), the median was 34 years (males = 34 and females = 33).

The incidence rate was higher in older age groups, females and three districts (Basrah city, Al-Hartha and Al-Mdaina).

The case fatality was within the international figures and significantly predicted by age (older age is associated with high fatality), travel history and presence of co-morbidity.

The epidemic curve is moderate, fluctuant and does not help yet in predicting an exit from the epidemic.

Conclusion: The epidemic of COVID-19 in Basrah is moderate, cluster in transmission and changing in time but is unpredictable.