An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts
Joint Authors
Thomas, Len
Duck, Callan
Lonergan, Mike
Thompson, Dave
Source
Issue
Vol. 2011, Issue 2011 (31 Dec. 2011), pp.1-7, 7 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2011-06-22
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Earth Science , Water and Environment
Abstract EN
For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies.
Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity.
We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models.
The method is equivalent to fitting a density-dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density-dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions.
It requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used and produces similar estimates.
We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Lonergan, Mike& Thompson, Dave& Thomas, Len& Duck, Callan. 2011. An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts. Journal of Marine Sciences،Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-990924
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Lonergan, Mike…[et al.]. An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts. Journal of Marine Sciences No. 2011 (2011), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-990924
American Medical Association (AMA)
Lonergan, Mike& Thompson, Dave& Thomas, Len& Duck, Callan. An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2011. Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-990924
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-990924