A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China

الملخص EN

To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMAmodel is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation.

Theproposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it candescribe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily.

Based onthe HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation andthe incidence seasonal peak was between May and July.

In the county-level analysis, we findthat after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA ( 0 , 0 ) × ( 1 , 0 ) 12 model provides anadequate fit to the data.