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Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis
المؤلفون المشاركون
Kumar, Varun
Singh, Abhay
Adhikary, Mrinmoy
Khokhar, Anita
Singh, Saudan
Daral, Shailaja
المصدر
Tuberculosis Research and Treatment
العدد
المجلد 2014، العدد 2014 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2014)، ص ص. 1-5، 5ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2014-03-23
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
5
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Background.
It is highly cost effective to detect a seasonal trend in tuberculosis in order to optimize disease control and intervention.
Although seasonal variation of tuberculosis has been reported from different parts of the world, no definite and consistent pattern has been observed.
Therefore, the study was designed to find the seasonal variation of tuberculosis in Delhi, India.
Methods.
Retrospective record based study was undertaken in a Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS) centre located in the south district of Delhi.
Six-year data from January 2007 to December 2012 was analyzed.
Expert modeler of SPSS ver.
21 software was used to fit the best suitable model for the time series data.
Results.
Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) at lag 12 show significant peak suggesting seasonal component of the TB series.
Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) showed peak seasonal variation from March to May.
Univariate model by expert modeler in the SPSS showed that Winter’s multiplicative model could best predict the time series data with 69.8% variability.
The forecast shows declining trend with seasonality.
Conclusion.
A seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation were observed in the incidence of tuberculosis.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Kumar, Varun& Singh, Abhay& Adhikary, Mrinmoy& Daral, Shailaja& Khokhar, Anita& Singh, Saudan. 2014. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Tuberculosis Research and Treatment،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-5.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1048065
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Kumar, Varun…[et al.]. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Tuberculosis Research and Treatment No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-5.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1048065
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Kumar, Varun& Singh, Abhay& Adhikary, Mrinmoy& Daral, Shailaja& Khokhar, Anita& Singh, Saudan. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Tuberculosis Research and Treatment. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-5.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1048065
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1048065
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر
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