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Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis
Joint Authors
Kumar, Varun
Singh, Abhay
Adhikary, Mrinmoy
Khokhar, Anita
Singh, Saudan
Daral, Shailaja
Source
Tuberculosis Research and Treatment
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-5, 5 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-03-23
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
5
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Background.
It is highly cost effective to detect a seasonal trend in tuberculosis in order to optimize disease control and intervention.
Although seasonal variation of tuberculosis has been reported from different parts of the world, no definite and consistent pattern has been observed.
Therefore, the study was designed to find the seasonal variation of tuberculosis in Delhi, India.
Methods.
Retrospective record based study was undertaken in a Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS) centre located in the south district of Delhi.
Six-year data from January 2007 to December 2012 was analyzed.
Expert modeler of SPSS ver.
21 software was used to fit the best suitable model for the time series data.
Results.
Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) at lag 12 show significant peak suggesting seasonal component of the TB series.
Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) showed peak seasonal variation from March to May.
Univariate model by expert modeler in the SPSS showed that Winter’s multiplicative model could best predict the time series data with 69.8% variability.
The forecast shows declining trend with seasonality.
Conclusion.
A seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation were observed in the incidence of tuberculosis.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Kumar, Varun& Singh, Abhay& Adhikary, Mrinmoy& Daral, Shailaja& Khokhar, Anita& Singh, Saudan. 2014. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Tuberculosis Research and Treatment،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-5.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1048065
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Kumar, Varun…[et al.]. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Tuberculosis Research and Treatment No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-5.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1048065
American Medical Association (AMA)
Kumar, Varun& Singh, Abhay& Adhikary, Mrinmoy& Daral, Shailaja& Khokhar, Anita& Singh, Saudan. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Tuberculosis Research and Treatment. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-5.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1048065
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1048065