Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola
المؤلفون المشاركون
Tang, Sanyi
Liu, Wendi
Xiao, Yanni
المصدر
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
العدد
المجلد 2015، العدد 2015 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2015)، ص ص. 1-14، 14ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2015-09-15
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
14
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
The aim of the present study is to apply simple ODE models in the area of modeling the spread of emerging infectious diseases and show the importance of model selection in estimating parameters, the basic reproduction number, turning point, and final size.
To quantify the plausibility of each model, given the data and the set of four models including Logistic, Gompertz, Rosenzweg, and Richards models, the Bayes factors are calculated and the precise estimates of the best fitted model parameters and key epidemic characteristics have been obtained.
In particular, for Ebola the basic reproduction numbers are 1.3522 (95% CI (1.3506, 1.3537)), 1.2101 (95% CI (1.2084, 1.2119)), 3.0234 (95% CI (2.6063, 3.4881)), and 1.9018 (95% CI (1.8565, 1.9478)), the turning points are November 7,November 17, October 2, and November 3, 2014, and the final sizes until December 2015 are 25794 (95% CI (25630, 25958)), 3916 (95% CI (3865, 3967)), 9886 (95% CI (9740, 10031)), and 12633 (95% CI (12515, 12750)) for West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, respectively.
The main results confirm that model selection is crucial in evaluating and predicting the important quantities describing the emerging infectious diseases, and arbitrarily picking a model without any consideration of alternatives is problematic.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Liu, Wendi& Tang, Sanyi& Xiao, Yanni. 2015. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057833
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Liu, Wendi…[et al.]. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057833
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Liu, Wendi& Tang, Sanyi& Xiao, Yanni. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057833
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1057833
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر