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Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola
Joint Authors
Tang, Sanyi
Liu, Wendi
Xiao, Yanni
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2015, Issue 2015 (31 Dec. 2015), pp.1-14, 14 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2015-09-15
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
14
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The aim of the present study is to apply simple ODE models in the area of modeling the spread of emerging infectious diseases and show the importance of model selection in estimating parameters, the basic reproduction number, turning point, and final size.
To quantify the plausibility of each model, given the data and the set of four models including Logistic, Gompertz, Rosenzweg, and Richards models, the Bayes factors are calculated and the precise estimates of the best fitted model parameters and key epidemic characteristics have been obtained.
In particular, for Ebola the basic reproduction numbers are 1.3522 (95% CI (1.3506, 1.3537)), 1.2101 (95% CI (1.2084, 1.2119)), 3.0234 (95% CI (2.6063, 3.4881)), and 1.9018 (95% CI (1.8565, 1.9478)), the turning points are November 7,November 17, October 2, and November 3, 2014, and the final sizes until December 2015 are 25794 (95% CI (25630, 25958)), 3916 (95% CI (3865, 3967)), 9886 (95% CI (9740, 10031)), and 12633 (95% CI (12515, 12750)) for West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, respectively.
The main results confirm that model selection is crucial in evaluating and predicting the important quantities describing the emerging infectious diseases, and arbitrarily picking a model without any consideration of alternatives is problematic.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Liu, Wendi& Tang, Sanyi& Xiao, Yanni. 2015. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057833
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Liu, Wendi…[et al.]. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057833
American Medical Association (AMA)
Liu, Wendi& Tang, Sanyi& Xiao, Yanni. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including AH1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057833
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1057833