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Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses
المؤلفون المشاركون
Chadsuthi, Sudarat
Iamsirithaworn, Sopon
Triampo, Wannapong
Modchang, Charin
المصدر
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
العدد
المجلد 2015، العدد 2015 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2015)، ص ص. 1-8، 8ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2015-11-18
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
8
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another.
Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables.
In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand.
The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function.
Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained.
We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region.
The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Chadsuthi, Sudarat& Iamsirithaworn, Sopon& Triampo, Wannapong& Modchang, Charin. 2015. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057900
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Chadsuthi, Sudarat…[et al.]. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057900
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Chadsuthi, Sudarat& Iamsirithaworn, Sopon& Triampo, Wannapong& Modchang, Charin. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057900
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1057900
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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