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Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses
Joint Authors
Chadsuthi, Sudarat
Iamsirithaworn, Sopon
Triampo, Wannapong
Modchang, Charin
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2015, Issue 2015 (31 Dec. 2015), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2015-11-18
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another.
Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables.
In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand.
The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function.
Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained.
We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region.
The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Chadsuthi, Sudarat& Iamsirithaworn, Sopon& Triampo, Wannapong& Modchang, Charin. 2015. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057900
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Chadsuthi, Sudarat…[et al.]. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057900
American Medical Association (AMA)
Chadsuthi, Sudarat& Iamsirithaworn, Sopon& Triampo, Wannapong& Modchang, Charin. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1057900
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1057900