Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China

الملخص EN

Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline.

In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated.

The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results.

Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk.

The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces.

In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%.

The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters.