Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China
Joint Authors
Wang, Zhi-Lan
Wang, Jing
Wang, Jin-Song
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2015, Issue 2015 (31 Dec. 2015), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2015-11-29
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline.
In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated.
The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results.
Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk.
The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces.
In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%.
The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wang, Zhi-Lan& Wang, Jing& Wang, Jin-Song. 2015. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060400
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wang, Zhi-Lan…[et al.]. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060400
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wang, Zhi-Lan& Wang, Jing& Wang, Jin-Song. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060400
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1060400