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Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale
المؤلفون المشاركون
Yu, Wansik
Nakakita, Eiichi
Kim, Sunmin
Yamaguchi, Kosei
المصدر
العدد
المجلد 2016، العدد 2016 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2016)، ص ص. 1-17، 17ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2016-01-05
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
17
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
The common approach to quantifying the precipitation forecast uncertainty is ensemble simulations where a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is run for a number of cases with slightly different initial conditions.
In practice, the spread of ensemble members in terms of flood discharge is used as a measure of forecast uncertainty due to uncertain precipitation forecasts.
This study presents the uncertainty propagation of rainfall forecast into hydrological response with catchment scale through distributed rainfall-runoff modeling based on the forecasted ensemble rainfall of NWP model.
At first, forecast rainfall error based on the BIAS is compared with flood forecast error to assess the error propagation.
Second, the variability of flood forecast uncertainty according to catchment scale is discussed using ensemble spread.
Then we also assess the flood forecast uncertainty with catchment scale using an estimation regression equation between ensemble rainfall BIAS and discharge BIAS.
Finally, the flood forecast uncertainty with RMSE using specific discharge in catchment scale is discussed.
Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon “Talas” of 2011 over the 33 subcatchments of Shingu river basin (2,360 km2), which is located in the Kii Peninsula, Japan.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Yu, Wansik& Nakakita, Eiichi& Kim, Sunmin& Yamaguchi, Kosei. 2016. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095348
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Yu, Wansik…[et al.]. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale. Advances in Meteorology No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095348
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Yu, Wansik& Nakakita, Eiichi& Kim, Sunmin& Yamaguchi, Kosei. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale. Advances in Meteorology. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095348
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1095348
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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