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Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale
Joint Authors
Yu, Wansik
Nakakita, Eiichi
Kim, Sunmin
Yamaguchi, Kosei
Source
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-17, 17 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-01-05
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
17
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The common approach to quantifying the precipitation forecast uncertainty is ensemble simulations where a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is run for a number of cases with slightly different initial conditions.
In practice, the spread of ensemble members in terms of flood discharge is used as a measure of forecast uncertainty due to uncertain precipitation forecasts.
This study presents the uncertainty propagation of rainfall forecast into hydrological response with catchment scale through distributed rainfall-runoff modeling based on the forecasted ensemble rainfall of NWP model.
At first, forecast rainfall error based on the BIAS is compared with flood forecast error to assess the error propagation.
Second, the variability of flood forecast uncertainty according to catchment scale is discussed using ensemble spread.
Then we also assess the flood forecast uncertainty with catchment scale using an estimation regression equation between ensemble rainfall BIAS and discharge BIAS.
Finally, the flood forecast uncertainty with RMSE using specific discharge in catchment scale is discussed.
Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon “Talas” of 2011 over the 33 subcatchments of Shingu river basin (2,360 km2), which is located in the Kii Peninsula, Japan.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Yu, Wansik& Nakakita, Eiichi& Kim, Sunmin& Yamaguchi, Kosei. 2016. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095348
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Yu, Wansik…[et al.]. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale. Advances in Meteorology No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095348
American Medical Association (AMA)
Yu, Wansik& Nakakita, Eiichi& Kim, Sunmin& Yamaguchi, Kosei. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale. Advances in Meteorology. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095348
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1095348