Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process

الملخص EN

This paper aims at introducing a new improved stochastic differential equation related to Gompertz curve for the projection of vehicle ownership growth.

This diffusion model explains the relationship between vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, which has been studied as a Gompertz-like function before.

The main innovations of the process lie in two parts: by modifying the deterministic part of the original Gompertz equation, the model can present the remaining slow increase when the S-shaped curve has reached its saturation level; by introducing the stochastic differential equation, the model can better fit the real data when there are fluctuations.

Such comparisons are carried out based on data from US, UK, Japan, and Korea with a time span of 1960–2008.

It turns out that the new process behaves better in fitting curves and predicting short term growth.

Finally, a prediction of Chinese vehicle ownership up to 2025 is presented with the new model, as China is on the initial stage of motorization with much fluctuations in growth.