Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process
Joint Authors
Sun, Zhi-yuan
Lu, Huapu
Ma, He
Wang, Jing
Source
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-07-11
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
This paper aims at introducing a new improved stochastic differential equation related to Gompertz curve for the projection of vehicle ownership growth.
This diffusion model explains the relationship between vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, which has been studied as a Gompertz-like function before.
The main innovations of the process lie in two parts: by modifying the deterministic part of the original Gompertz equation, the model can present the remaining slow increase when the S-shaped curve has reached its saturation level; by introducing the stochastic differential equation, the model can better fit the real data when there are fluctuations.
Such comparisons are carried out based on data from US, UK, Japan, and Korea with a time span of 1960–2008.
It turns out that the new process behaves better in fitting curves and predicting short term growth.
Finally, a prediction of Chinese vehicle ownership up to 2025 is presented with the new model, as China is on the initial stage of motorization with much fluctuations in growth.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Lu, Huapu& Ma, He& Sun, Zhi-yuan& Wang, Jing. 2017. Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process. Journal of Advanced Transportation،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170672
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Lu, Huapu…[et al.]. Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process. Journal of Advanced Transportation No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170672
American Medical Association (AMA)
Lu, Huapu& Ma, He& Sun, Zhi-yuan& Wang, Jing. Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170672
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1170672