التنبؤ بأعداد المصابين بمرض الكورونا بالسودان باستخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية في الفترة من مارس 2020 م–مايو 2021 م

الملخص EN

This research aims to use time series models in predicting the number of people with corona virus in Sudan, the research problem is the scarcity of statistical models that serve to predict such a serious disease in Sudan, and this research is assumed to be that the estimated model of study data is appropriate and accurate and suitable for predicting the number of patients in the future, and the analytical approach used through spss21, and the most important conclusions of the research are that the use of time series analysis is appropriate and useful in studying the numbers of people affected by corona virus In Sudan, the statistical model of the time series data for affected people in Sudan is (ARMA(0,1.2), and the time series of patients is increasing monthly and is expected to increase significantly especially if the state does not apply health precautions to cope with the virus, the researchers recommend using the model reached by the study by health authorities to see the future trends of the phenomenon and develop plans to confront and reduce the number of people affected by the virus.

In the future, we recommend using multi-variable time series analysis by taking the series to several variables where the number of deaths can be studied with the number of infected people and the preparation of those recovering from the virus to contribute to the development of plans for the crisis for health authorities to cope with the virus.