Egypt airline passengers market : competition and performance

الملخص EN

In the present era of dramatic changes in the air transport services sector, this paper examines the link between the extent of liberalization and the performance of the Egyptian airline market.

The study is conducted at the route level, and due data unavailability it is limited to the biggest Egyptian carrier, namely Egypt Air.

Estimation results show that air liberalization reduces Egypt Air’s fares but have two conflicting effects on its number of passengers.

A direct negative impact on Egypt Air’s number of passengers due to their switch to other carriers and an indirect positive effect due the reduction in fares.

Simulations show that the net effect on the number of Egypt Air’s passengers is negative.

However, the decrease in the number of Egypt Air’s passengers does not mean a decrease in the number of passengers to and from Egypt.

Even with a constant income, the number of passengers to and from Egypt might increase if competition results in lower fares for all carriers.

Some of the existing passengers just switch from Egypt Air to another carrier.

Provided the other carrier is Egyptian (existent or newly created), the total revenues of travel to and from Egypt should not change for the Egyptian economy.

In addition, simulation concludes that the consumer’s surplus increases while that of producer declines ; hence, leading to a net positive effect on society welfare.

Therefore, if the aviation authority wants neither to waste the society welfare nor to create disincentive for the Egyptian producers to liberalization measures, it should adopt the liberalization measures with twin strategies : fostering effective entry of domestic carriers and fostering competition among these carriers.