Statistical and econometric analysis of gum Arabic production and marketing in the Sudan

مقدم أطروحة جامعية

Muhammad, Muhammad Ibrahim

مشرف أطروحة جامعية

Ahmad, Sadiq Muhammad

الجامعة

جامعة أم درمان الإسلامية

الكلية

كلية الاقتصاد و العلوم السياسية

القسم الأكاديمي

قسم الإحصاء

دولة الجامعة

السودان

الدرجة العلمية

دكتوراه

تاريخ الدرجة العلمية

2006

الملخص الإنجليزي

This thesis is an attempt to analyze empirically Gum Arabic production, exports, international demand and floor price time series data which pertains to the period from the years 1949 up to 2003.

Three statistical inference methods (Multiple regression, Time series and ARIMA) are applied for statistically analyzing the formulated models.

Also a survey is conducted for the collection of primary data about the attitudes of Gum producers and traders towards Gum Arabic floor price and the factor analysis method is applied for the analysis of this data.

According to the results of the analysis the following are the most important conclusions: - The temperature lagged one time period ; rainfall, labour; capital and net price index for sorghum and millet lagged one year have significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic production.

- The world Gum Arabic exports lagged one year and world gross domestic product has significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic international demand.

- Gum Arabic exports lagged one year and Hashab export price have significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic exports.

- Total revenues from Gum Arabic exports, rainfall and export price per kantar have significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic floor price.

- The multiple regression method is more consistent than the other two methods for analyzing Gum Arabic data.

- The ARIMA method is the forecast accuracy best method than the other two methods for forecasting future values of Gum Arabic time series data.

- The Gum Arabic producers and traders characteristics and interests are different.

- The Gum Arabic producers and traders ranking of importance for factors affecting Gum Arabic floor price rate determination are different.

Finally, the following points are highly recommended to be considered : Gum Arabic producers and traders have to be involved in the formulation of Gum Arabic sector development strategies and policies and also in the determination of floor price rate : - Scarcity of drinking water, poor education and health services and transportations difficulties are some of the main factors adversely affecting any increase in Gum production.

- A comprehensive research strategy is required to be undertaken for the development and protection of Gum tree

التخصصات الرئيسية

الاقتصاد و التجارة

الموضوعات

• السودان

عدد الصفحات

178

قائمة المحتويات

• APA
• MLA
• AMA

لغة النص

الإنجليزية

نوع البيانات

رسائل جامعية

رقم السجل

BIM-362776