Statistical and econometric analysis of gum Arabic production and marketing in the Sudan
Dissertant
Thesis advisor
University
Omdurman Islamic University
Faculty
Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences
Department
Department of Statistics
University Country
Sudan
Degree
Ph.D.
Degree Date
2006
English Abstract
This thesis is an attempt to analyze empirically Gum Arabic production, exports, international demand and floor price time series data which pertains to the period from the years 1949 up to 2003.
Three statistical inference methods (Multiple regression, Time series and ARIMA) are applied for statistically analyzing the formulated models.
Also a survey is conducted for the collection of primary data about the attitudes of Gum producers and traders towards Gum Arabic floor price and the factor analysis method is applied for the analysis of this data.
According to the results of the analysis the following are the most important conclusions: - The temperature lagged one time period ; rainfall, labour; capital and net price index for sorghum and millet lagged one year have significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic production.
- The world Gum Arabic exports lagged one year and world gross domestic product has significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic international demand.
- Gum Arabic exports lagged one year and Hashab export price have significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic exports.
- Total revenues from Gum Arabic exports, rainfall and export price per kantar have significant statistical effect on Gum Arabic floor price.
- The multiple regression method is more consistent than the other two methods for analyzing Gum Arabic data.
- The ARIMA method is the forecast accuracy best method than the other two methods for forecasting future values of Gum Arabic time series data.
- The Gum Arabic producers and traders characteristics and interests are different.
- The Gum Arabic producers and traders ranking of importance for factors affecting Gum Arabic floor price rate determination are different.
Finally, the following points are highly recommended to be considered : Gum Arabic producers and traders have to be involved in the formulation of Gum Arabic sector development strategies and policies and also in the determination of floor price rate : - Scarcity of drinking water, poor education and health services and transportations difficulties are some of the main factors adversely affecting any increase in Gum production.
- A comprehensive research strategy is required to be undertaken for the development and protection of Gum tree
Main Subjects
Topics
No. of Pages
178
Table of Contents
Table of contents.
Abstract.
Introduction.
Chapter One : Production and marketing of gum Arabic in the Sudan.
Chapter Two : Regression method, time series and ARIMA.
Chapter Three : Multivariate analysis and properties of good estimators.
Chapter Four : Data analysis.
Chapter Five : Assessment of attitudes of gum Arabic producers and traders towards the floor price.
Chapter Six : Summary, conclusions and recommendations.
References.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Muhammad, Muhammad Ibrahim. (2006). Statistical and econometric analysis of gum Arabic production and marketing in the Sudan. (Doctoral dissertations Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University, Sudan
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-362776
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Muhammad, Muhammad Ibrahim. Statistical and econometric analysis of gum Arabic production and marketing in the Sudan. (Doctoral dissertations Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University. (2006).
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-362776
American Medical Association (AMA)
Muhammad, Muhammad Ibrahim. (2006). Statistical and econometric analysis of gum Arabic production and marketing in the Sudan. (Doctoral dissertations Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University, Sudan
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-362776
Language
English
Data Type
Arab Theses
Record ID
BIM-362776
