Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models
المؤلفون المشاركون
Khanjani, Narjis
Musazadah, Mahmud
Nasihi, Mahshid
Bahrampour, Abbas
Sharafi, Said
Ahmadi, Shanaz
المصدر
Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal
العدد
المجلد 16، العدد 5 (31 مايو/أيار 2014)، ص ص. 1-6، 6ص.
الناشر
تاريخ النشر
2014-05-31
دولة النشر
الإمارات العربية المتحدة
عدد الصفحات
6
التخصصات الرئيسية
الموضوعات
الملخص EN
Background : Predicting the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) plays an important role in planning health control strategies for the future, developing intervention programs and allocating resources.
Objectives : The present longitudinal study estimated the incidence of tuberculosis in 2014 using Box-Jenkins methods.
Materials and Methods : Monthly data of tuberculosis cases recorded in the surveillance system of Iran tuberculosis control program from 2005 till 2011 was used.
Data was reviewed regarding normality, variance equality and stationary conditions.
The parameters p, d and q and P, D and Q were determined, and different models were examined.
Based on the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected among the models whose overall adequacy was confirmed.
Results : During 84 months, 63568 TB patients were recorded.
The average was 756.8 (SD = 11.9) TB cases a month.
SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 with the lowest level of AIC (12.78) was selected as the most adequate model for prediction.
It was predicted that the total nationwide TB cases for 2014 will be about 16.75 per 100,000 people.
Conclusions : Regarding the cyclic pattern of TB recorded cases, Box-Jenkins and SARIMA models are suitable for predicting its prevalence in future.
Moreover, prediction results show an increasing trend of TB cases in Iran.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Musazadah, Mahmud& Nasihi, Mahshid& Bahrampour, Abbas& Khanjani, Narjis& Sharafi, Said& Ahmadi, Shanaz. 2014. Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models. Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal،Vol. 16, no. 5, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-371567
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Musazadah, Mahmud…[et al.]. Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models. Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal Vol. 16, no. 5 (May. 2014), pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-371567
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Musazadah, Mahmud& Nasihi, Mahshid& Bahrampour, Abbas& Khanjani, Narjis& Sharafi, Said& Ahmadi, Shanaz. Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models. Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal. 2014. Vol. 16, no. 5, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-371567
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references : p. 5-6
رقم السجل
BIM-371567
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر