Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models
Joint Authors
Khanjani, Narjis
Musazadah, Mahmud
Nasihi, Mahshid
Bahrampour, Abbas
Sharafi, Said
Ahmadi, Shanaz
Source
Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal
Issue
Vol. 16, Issue 5 (31 May. 2014), pp.1-6, 6 p.
Publisher
Publication Date
2014-05-31
Country of Publication
United Arab Emirates
No. of Pages
6
Main Subjects
Topics
Abstract EN
Background : Predicting the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) plays an important role in planning health control strategies for the future, developing intervention programs and allocating resources.
Objectives : The present longitudinal study estimated the incidence of tuberculosis in 2014 using Box-Jenkins methods.
Materials and Methods : Monthly data of tuberculosis cases recorded in the surveillance system of Iran tuberculosis control program from 2005 till 2011 was used.
Data was reviewed regarding normality, variance equality and stationary conditions.
The parameters p, d and q and P, D and Q were determined, and different models were examined.
Based on the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected among the models whose overall adequacy was confirmed.
Results : During 84 months, 63568 TB patients were recorded.
The average was 756.8 (SD = 11.9) TB cases a month.
SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 with the lowest level of AIC (12.78) was selected as the most adequate model for prediction.
It was predicted that the total nationwide TB cases for 2014 will be about 16.75 per 100,000 people.
Conclusions : Regarding the cyclic pattern of TB recorded cases, Box-Jenkins and SARIMA models are suitable for predicting its prevalence in future.
Moreover, prediction results show an increasing trend of TB cases in Iran.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Musazadah, Mahmud& Nasihi, Mahshid& Bahrampour, Abbas& Khanjani, Narjis& Sharafi, Said& Ahmadi, Shanaz. 2014. Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models. Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal،Vol. 16, no. 5, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-371567
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Musazadah, Mahmud…[et al.]. Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models. Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal Vol. 16, no. 5 (May. 2014), pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-371567
American Medical Association (AMA)
Musazadah, Mahmud& Nasihi, Mahshid& Bahrampour, Abbas& Khanjani, Narjis& Sharafi, Said& Ahmadi, Shanaz. Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in Iran using box-jenkins models. Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal. 2014. Vol. 16, no. 5, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-371567
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 5-6
Record ID
BIM-371567