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Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques
Joint Authors
Monteiro, Claudio
Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo
Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.
Muñoz-Jimenez, Andres
Lara-Santillan, Pedro M.
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2013, Issue 2013 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2013-11-21
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF) and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF).
Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production.
The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adjusting irradiation data of clear sky by an irradiation attenuation index, combined with a PV power production attenuation index.
The MPVF model consists of an artificial neural network based model (selected among a large set of ANN optimized with genetic algorithms, GAs).
The two models use forecasts from the same NWP tool as inputs.
The APVF and MPVF models have been applied to a real-life case study of a grid-connected PV plant using the same data.
Despite the fact that both models are quite different, they achieve very similar results, with forecast horizons covering all the daylight hours of the following day, which give a good perspective of their applicability for PV electric production sale bids to electricity markets.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Monteiro, Claudio& Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo& Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.& Muñoz-Jimenez, Andres& Lara-Santillan, Pedro M.. 2013. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1010702
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Monteiro, Claudio…[et al.]. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2013 (2013), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1010702
American Medical Association (AMA)
Monteiro, Claudio& Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo& Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.& Muñoz-Jimenez, Andres& Lara-Santillan, Pedro M.. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2013. Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1010702
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1010702