Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables
Joint Authors
Zhong-xiang, Feng
Shi-sheng, Lu
Wei-hua, Zhang
Nan-nan, Zhang
Source
Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-7, 7 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-12-31
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model.
Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient.
Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions.
Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models.
The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Zhong-xiang, Feng& Shi-sheng, Lu& Wei-hua, Zhang& Nan-nan, Zhang. 2014. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1016709
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Zhong-xiang, Feng…[et al.]. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1016709
American Medical Association (AMA)
Zhong-xiang, Feng& Shi-sheng, Lu& Wei-hua, Zhang& Nan-nan, Zhang. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1016709
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1016709