Midterm Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting Using Two-Stage Multiple Support Vector Machine

Abstract EN

Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term forecasting of the electricity market clearing price (MCP), but very little work has been done in the area of midterm forecasting of the electricity MCP.

The midterm forecasting of the electricity MCP is essential for maintenance scheduling, planning, bilateral contracting, resources reallocation, and budgeting.

A two-stage multiple support vector machine (SVM) based midterm forecasting model of the electricity MCP is proposed in this paper.

The first stage is utilized to separate the input data into corresponding price zones by using a single SVM.

Then, the second stage is applied utilizing four parallel designed SVMs to forecast the electricity price in four different price zones.

Compared to the forecasting model using a single SVM, the proposed model showed improved forecasting accuracy in both peak prices and overall system.

PJM interconnection data are used to test the proposed model.