A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract EN

The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi.

We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis.

We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model.

Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%.

The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.