Scenario-Planning Method for Cost Estimation Using Morphological Analysis

Abstract EN

Early cost estimates are emphasized repeatedly in the initial decision-making process to set a direction for the success of construction projects.

Therefore, alternatives need to be examined, and the consequences for the cost should be analyzed carefully.

This study proposes a scenario-planning method that uses morphological analysis for the estimation of construction cost.

A case study was conducted using public data on 102 apartment buildings from 10 housing complex projects.

The results show estimation accuracy of 4.23 to 4.86% and an average stability enhancement of 1.39 to 1.73%.

The proposed process can produce adaptable scenarios and evaluate the impact of the scenarios in a complicated decision-making process with limited information provided.

Furthermore, this method can provide a contingency plan to cushion against uncertainties.