Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement
Joint Authors
Zhang, Xuezhen
Ge, Quansheng
Wang, Fang
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.
Zhang, Jintao
Wu, Maowei
Hao, Zhixin
Source
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-05-08
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
To limit global warming to well below 2°C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades.
However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions.
In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions.
The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2∼15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29∼1.55°C (median of 1.41°C) above the preindustrial level.
By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4∼9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67∼3.74°C (median of 3.17°C).
The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century.
Thus, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5‐2.0°C above the pre-industrial.
Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wang, Fang& Tokarska, Katarzyna B.& Zhang, Jintao& Ge, Quansheng& Hao, Zhixin& Zhang, Xuezhen…[et al.]. 2018. Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1118664
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wang, Fang…[et al.]. Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement. Advances in Meteorology No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1118664
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wang, Fang& Tokarska, Katarzyna B.& Zhang, Jintao& Ge, Quansheng& Hao, Zhixin& Zhang, Xuezhen…[et al.]. Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement. Advances in Meteorology. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1118664
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1118664