Developing Pavement Distress Deterioration Models for Pavement Management System Using Markovian Probabilistic Process
Joint Authors
Atadero, Rebecca A.
Saha, Promothes
Ksaibati, Khaled
Source
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-11-19
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In the state of Colorado, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) utilizes their pavement management system (PMS) to manage approximately 9,100 miles of interstate, highways, and low-volume roads.
Three types of deterioration models are currently being used in the existing PMS: site-specific, family, and expert opinion curves.
These curves are developed using deterministic techniques.
In the deterministic technique, the uncertainties of pavement deterioration related to traffic and weather are not considered.
Probabilistic models that take into account the uncertainties result in more accurate curves.
In this study, probabilistic models using the discrete-time Markov process were developed for five distress indices: transverse, longitudinal, fatigue, rut, and ride indices, as a case study on low-volume roads.
Regression techniques were used to develop the deterioration paths using the predicted distribution of indices estimated from the Markov process.
Results indicated that longitudinal, fatigue, and rut indices had very slow deterioration over time, whereas transverse and ride indices showed faster deterioration.
The developed deterioration models had the coefficient of determination (R2) above 0.84.
As probabilistic models provide more accurate results, it is recommended that these models be used as the family curves in the CDOT PMS for low-volume roads.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Saha, Promothes& Ksaibati, Khaled& Atadero, Rebecca A.. 2017. Developing Pavement Distress Deterioration Models for Pavement Management System Using Markovian Probabilistic Process. Advances in Civil Engineering،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1121369
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Saha, Promothes…[et al.]. Developing Pavement Distress Deterioration Models for Pavement Management System Using Markovian Probabilistic Process. Advances in Civil Engineering No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1121369
American Medical Association (AMA)
Saha, Promothes& Ksaibati, Khaled& Atadero, Rebecca A.. Developing Pavement Distress Deterioration Models for Pavement Management System Using Markovian Probabilistic Process. Advances in Civil Engineering. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1121369
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1121369