A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions
Joint Authors
Armstrong, Margaret
Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-07-04
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers.
We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future).
To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process.
The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period.
The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Amaku, Marcos& Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra& Armstrong, Margaret& Massad, Eduardo. 2018. A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1132085
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Amaku, Marcos…[et al.]. A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1132085
American Medical Association (AMA)
Amaku, Marcos& Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra& Armstrong, Margaret& Massad, Eduardo. A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1132085
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1132085