The Use of System Dynamics Methodology in Building a COVID-19 Confirmed Case Model

Abstract EN

Researchers used a hybrid model (a combination of health resource demand model and disease transmission model), Bayesian model, and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to predict health service utilization and deaths and mixed-effect nonlinear regression.

Further, they used the mixture model to predict the number of confirmed cases and deaths or to predict when the curve would flatten.

In this article, we show, through scenarios developed using system dynamics methodology, besides close to real-world results, the detrimental effects of ignoring social distancing guidelines (in terms of the number of people infected, which decreased as the percentage of noncompliance decreased).