A Novel Hierarchical Hybrid Model for Short-Term Bus Passenger Flow Forecasting
Joint Authors
Xu, Xiaowei
Zhai, Huawei
Tian, Ruijie
Cui, Licheng
Zhang, Weishi
Source
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-16, 16 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-02-01
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
16
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
For the increasing travel demands and public transport problems, dynamically adjusting timetable or bus scheduling is necessary based on accurate real-time passenger flow forecasting.
In order to get more accurate passenger flow in future, this paper proposes a novel hierarchical hybrid model based on time series model, deep belief networks (DBNs), and improved incremental extreme learning machine (Im-ELM) to forecast short-term passenger flow.
The proposed model is named HTSDBNE with two modelling steps.
First, referring the idea of parallelization, the hybrid model, constructed by time series model, DBN, and Im-ELM, is used to forecast short-term passenger flow in different time scales hierarchically and parallel.
Second, Im-ELM is utilized to analyse the relationship of forecasting results from the first step, and the weighted outputs of Im-ELM are as the final forecasting results.
Comparing with single forecasting models and typical hybrid forecasting models, the testing results indicate that HTSDBNE has better performances.
The mean absolute percent error of prediction results is around 10% and fully meets the application requirements of bus operation enterprise.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Zhai, Huawei& Tian, Ruijie& Cui, Licheng& Xu, Xiaowei& Zhang, Weishi. 2020. A Novel Hierarchical Hybrid Model for Short-Term Bus Passenger Flow Forecasting. Journal of Advanced Transportation،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-16.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1176069
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Zhai, Huawei…[et al.]. A Novel Hierarchical Hybrid Model for Short-Term Bus Passenger Flow Forecasting. Journal of Advanced Transportation No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-16.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1176069
American Medical Association (AMA)
Zhai, Huawei& Tian, Ruijie& Cui, Licheng& Xu, Xiaowei& Zhang, Weishi. A Novel Hierarchical Hybrid Model for Short-Term Bus Passenger Flow Forecasting. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-16.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1176069
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1176069