Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project
Author
Source
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-10-14
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The special topic of this paper is to build a nonlinear measuring model between PPP project risk and multiple variables and test it through case analysis.
Nonlinear regression method was used in this research to study the risk mutation of public-private partnership (PPP) projects without any significant events.
Risk evolution is influenced by three factors which include (1) macroscopic environment, (2) micro environment, and (3) subject’s capacity and their cooperative relationship.
First, it reveals three main drive variables of project risk evolution through case analysis.
Second, it builds a nonlinear time-varying measurement model which is then transformed to a classical regression model.
Lastly, it estimates and tests the model parameter by an example.
The study shows that there is an integral negative correlation among the three independent variables within a certain threshold range, revealing macro environment as the most significant factor of project risk.
Analyzing the complex relationship between multiple impact variables and risk evolution of PPP projects can provide a basic tool for forecasting and control of risk.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Gao, Wu. 2018. Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project. Journal of Advanced Transportation،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1181202
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Gao, Wu. Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project. Journal of Advanced Transportation No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1181202
American Medical Association (AMA)
Gao, Wu. Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1181202
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1181202