Modeling demand for air travel at Jeddah international airport : an empirical study

Abstract EN

The primary objective of the work was to suggest a suitable forecasting modeling demand for air travel at Jeddah International Airport.

A large amount of data was collected to provide the basis for the conclusions.

Data on traffic intensity at Jeddah International Airport for a period ranging from 1975 to 1996 was used for the analysis.

These voluminous figures were fitted to most forecasting models.

Results indicate that data in all series are trended but non-seasonal.

The growth rate was high in the 70's and fluctuating in early 80's and mid 90's.

After the analyses, comparison and cross-checking, the authors arrived at the conclusion that the non-linear cubic model was the most suitable one for aviation planning in Jeddah city.

An examination of the statistical performance measures calculated for all models conclusively points to the usefulness of the non-linear cubic model.

A further extension of the work is possible with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) based on these models so that the aviation planning authority could use it for decision-making purposes as and when required.