A Novel Clustering Model Based on Set Pair Analysis for the Energy Consumption Forecast in China
Joint Authors
Jin, Juliang
Wei, Dongfang
Wang, Mingwu
Li, Jian
Jiang, Hui
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-07-23
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The energy consumption forecast is important for the decision-making of national economic and energy policies.
But it is a complex and uncertainty system problem affected by the outer environment and various uncertainty factors.
Herein, a novel clustering model based on set pair analysis (SPA) was introduced to analyze and predict energy consumption.
The annual dynamic relative indicator (DRI) of historical energy consumption was adopted to conduct a cluster analysis with Fisher’s optimal partition method.
Combined with indicator weights, group centroids of DRIs for influence factors were transferred into aggregating connection numbers in order to interpret uncertainty by identity-discrepancy-contrary (IDC) analysis.
Moreover, a forecasting model based on similarity to group centroid was discussed to forecast energy consumption of a certain year on the basis of measured values of influence factors.
Finally, a case study predicting China’s future energy consumption as well as comparison with the grey method was conducted to confirm the reliability and validity of the model.
The results indicate that the method presented here is more feasible and easier to use and can interpret certainty and uncertainty of development speed of energy consumption and influence factors as a whole.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wang, Mingwu& Wei, Dongfang& Li, Jian& Jiang, Hui& Jin, Juliang. 2014. A Novel Clustering Model Based on Set Pair Analysis for the Energy Consumption Forecast in China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-453221
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wang, Mingwu…[et al.]. A Novel Clustering Model Based on Set Pair Analysis for the Energy Consumption Forecast in China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-453221
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wang, Mingwu& Wei, Dongfang& Li, Jian& Jiang, Hui& Jin, Juliang. A Novel Clustering Model Based on Set Pair Analysis for the Energy Consumption Forecast in China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-453221
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-453221